The first defence against an outbreak of disease, such as the CoVID-19 strain, is to prevent its spread. There are many factors in epidemiology, two of which are the R0: the basic reproduction rate, and the CFR: the case fatality rate. This current CoVID-19 virus is prominent on both axes and therefore presents the threat of a global pandemic that could kill thousands – it is a matter of concern.
From what we know, CoVID-19 is spread through airborne body fluids, it also is a fomite: it can linger on surfaces such as door handles and on the hands. Hand washing is indicated in an effort to prevent the spread of infection.
I have considered health advice as being a meme that spreads through a population and has similar dynamics to a biological pathogen. Memes too can be thought of as having R0 and CFR measures. Some strains of thought contagion are indeed maladaptive and fatal – suicide terrorism is an extreme. Most memes are fairly benign, many of which are probiotic. Health advice, in this light, could be seen as a spreading meme, but with a negative case fatality rate against certain causes of illness. This means, in the case of an outbreak, that those “infected” by the meme are likely to take preventative measures against becoming infected by the biological pathogen. Where a beneficial “mind virus” outpaces the pathogen, then there is some degree of prevention, a kind of behavioural inoculation. The pace of information and disinformation, especially in the digital age, means that memes can leave genes panting far behind, as Dawkins put it. Given the risk posed by CoVID-19, then it would be wise to heed and spread, the advice of hand sanitisation.
Knowledge of sanitisation came to light in the wake of cholera but can knowing about memes and their higher R0 with a negative CFR serve to prevent pandemics. I call this memetic stratagem “heading off at the pass”, that is, the prevention measures get there before the bug does. It is a case of communicating health measures quicker than communicating the disease and this can be done by either public service information broadcasting or by network casting. It is curious that the catch-phrase “coughs and sneezes spread diseases” propagates through the same orifice as influenza.
Netflix chose a good time to put on ‘Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak’. It is a few years old and concerns Avian Influenza, Ebola, Anti-vaxxers etc., but is prophetic about the emergence of CoVID-19. In one throwaway establishing shot (S1: E4 – 28:30), a couple of WHO doctors, who are tackling ebola in the DRC, meet. It struck me that when they went to shake hands, instead of doing so, they bumped elbows. I imputed the reason for this as being (and I could be wrong) that health professionals in such risky areas had culturally adapted the handshake in such a way that would reduce the chances of spreading the ebola germs from hand-to-hand. A prudent memetic variation. Given that CoVID-19 can be transmitted through the widespread practice of shaking hands, it would seem that appropriating this bumping of elbows meme would offer a vector for heading the pathogen off at the pass.
The effort then is in introducing and propagating the “elbow bump” as a cultural practice that replaces handshaking; at least until this all blows over. The shift is much the same as sneezing into your elbow instead of your hand. Utilising the cliological frameworks, this development requires conveying the instruct of the substitute behaviour, the value of adopting it, the instruct of how to spread the gesture, and the value of why it should be spread. It also involves targeting “susceptible cascading nodes”, or “sneezers” (as Seth Godin calls them) who are highly connected in social networks: those who meet face-to-face, possibly shake hands, but also carry the gravitas to spread the meme (ie. clinicians are a good target deme). The gesture is simple enough, but the push motility, that which propels the meme, relies on conveying the risk of CoVID-19 through hand-to-hand transmission, and the benefit the “elbow bump” confers. Obviously, this concerns the individuals, but it is also important to relate how getting others to adopt the practice, making it widespread, might reduce the possible global cost to life. This moves onto a second incentive to spread the practice based on gamification – that of seeing how many you can pass this behaviour on to. It goes with the kudos of being an early adopter.
These are early days in this experiment, but I’m figuring out what the most effective sequences are and how to apply behavioural reinforcement to the pattern.
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